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 SunSpot maybe at bottom but the next hi..
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 25 Mar 2007 :  11:03:20 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1644.pdf

on page 10 we see, maybe we are at bottom!!
look at the double high mid 2000 es mid 2001..
6m was open from vk3 to EU/USA on both high's..
Now look at the bottom, jan/feb 06 and feb 07,, was this a false low in 06 or will we go a little lower 07,but it looks like we are now at the bottom, we are at 11 with a increase up, due for April/May..
It is interesting to note we had a double high (2000 es 2001) es a double low (2006 es 2007)If ,as some are saying the next high will be 50% higher ,well that's 170 plus 50% (220) .. Could be one of our highest in modern times.. Considering our modern Radios es high gain antenna's now in use ,6m DXCC is possible from vk3 on the next sun spot high,in about 3/4 years time..
Also more HAMS are using 6m or have radio's that will TX on 6m so our chances have improved somewhat.
Hopefully by this time all vk will/can use full power 400watts. now is the time to ask WIA/ACMA for our power levels to be increased in VK3 on 6m..All VHF tv should be on UHF Digital,so no problem's with VHF TVI hi hi

vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 25 Mar 2007 :  11:08:36 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
in the 2000/2001 season I worked/comfirmed 39 DXCC with 11 element beam at 50 feet..mixed cw /ssb..
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 13 Apr 2007 :  12:38:13 PM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1649.pdf
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 13 Apr 2007 :  12:47:32 PM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
:Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt
:Created: 2007 Apr 03 1600 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center (SEC).
# Please send comments and suggestions to sec.webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
# Prediction values are based on ISES cycle 23 forecast of 13-month running
# smoothed values.
# Current interpolation prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services, Australia
#
# Missing or not applicable data: -1.0
#
# Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
# With Expected Ranges
#
# -----Sunspot Number------ ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
# YR MO PREDICTED HIGH LOW PREDICTED HIGH LOW
#--------------------------------------------------------------
2006 10 14.3 15.3 13.3 79.3 80.3 78.3
2006 11 12.7 15.7 9.7 78.1 81.1 75.1
2006 12 11.8 16.8 6.8 77.3 82.3 72.3
2007 01 11.5 18.5 4.5 76.8 83.8 69.8
2007 02 11.3 19.3 3.3 76.4 85.4 67.4
2007 03 11.2 20.2 2.2 76.0 87.0 65.0
2007 04 11.3 21.3 1.3 75.9 88.9 62.9
2007 05 11.4 22.4 0.4 75.6 90.6 60.6
2007 06 11.6 23.6 0.0 75.0 92.0 60.0
2007 07 12.3 25.3 0.0 74.7 93.7 60.0
2007 08 13.4 27.4 0.0 75.0 96.0 60.0
2007 09 15.3 30.3 0.3 75.9 97.9 60.0
2007 10 15.6 30.6 0.6 75.7 98.7 60.0
2007 11 18.3 33.3 3.3 77.4 100.4 60.0
2007 12 21.3 36.3 6.3 79.4 102.4 60.0

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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 15 Apr 2007 :  11:44:00 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
SOLAR UPDATE

Spotmeister Tad "Saved By Zero" Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington, reports: So
far this month we've observed nine days in a row with zero sunspots. Based
on predicted smoothed sunspot numbers, if this month and the next are truly
the solar minimum, we should probably see several weeks in a row with no
sunspots.

The prediction for the next period of unsettled geomagnetic conditions is
for around April 20, with an expected planetary A index of 20. After that, a
planetary A index of 25 is predicted for April 28. This same forecast (from
the US Air Force, via NOAA) shows solar flux of 70 until April 16, when it
rises to 75. This is a small shift, but it may signal the period during
which we could see another sunspot, April 16-27.

Sunspot numbers for April 5 through 11 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with, a
mean of 0. The 10.7 cm flux was 70.9, 71, 71.2, 71.1, 69.9, 69.4, and 69.1,
with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 3, 9, 7 and
4, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 2, 2, 8,
6 and 3, with a mean of 3.7.
ARRL

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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 20 Apr 2007 :  1:42:09 PM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/cyclcomp.html
cycle 21,22,23
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 22 Apr 2007 :  08:31:15 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
Sunspot numbers for April 12 through 18 were 0, 0, 11, 0, 0, 12 and 11, with
a mean of 4.9. The 10.7 cm flux was 68.3, 68.3 68.2, 69.3, 69.3, 69.2, and
68.8, with a mean of 68.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 2, 4, 4, 1,
8 and 9, with a mean of 5.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 1, 3,
2, 0, 6 and 6, with a mean of 3.6xcsddddd
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 26 Apr 2007 :  09:17:34 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/PressRelease.html
latest report from NAOO; look's like another year before we hit bottom.. o'well back to 160 project!!
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 27 Apr 2007 :  10:53:13 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/space/04/26/solar.cycle.ap/index.html
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 02 May 2007 :  10:40:41 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
Space Weather Outlook
02 May – 28 May 2007
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during
02 – 07 May.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 19 May. A recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to disturb the field during 20 May. Unsettled to active
levels are expected during the disturbance. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during 2l – 24
May. Another round of coronal hole effects is expected during 25 – 26 May with unsettled to minor
storm conditions expected. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during 27 – 28 May.
SEC PRF 1652 01 May2007
1
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 02 May 2007 :  10:46:35 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1652.pdf
esw look at page 13!!
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vk3pa
Deceased

Australia
1714 Posts

Posted - 06 Jun 2007 :  10:37:00 AM  Show Profile  Visit vk3pa's Homepage  Reply with Quote
of the observed monthly mean values
Sunspot Numbers Radio Flux Geomagnetic
Observed values Ratio Smooth values *Penticton Smooth Planetary Smooth
Month SEC RI RI/SEC SEC RI 10.7 cm Value Ap Value
2005
May 65.4 42.6 0.65 48.3 29.0 99.5 93.2 20 14.8
June 59.8 39.6 0.66 47.9 28.9 93.7 91.9 13 13.9
July 71.0 39.9 0.56 48.1 29.2 96.6 90.9 16 13.1
August 65.6 36.4 0.55 45.4 27.5 90.7 89.3 16 12.2
September 39.2 22.1 0.56 42.9 25.9 90.8 87.8 21 11.8
October 13.0 8.5 0.65 42.6 25.5 76.7 87.4 7 11.6
November 32.2 18.0 0.56 42.1 24.9 86.3 86.7 8 11.1
December 62.6 41.2 0.66 40.1 23.0 90.8 85.4 7 10.4
2006
January 28.0 15.4 0.55 37.2 20.8 83.8 84.0 6 9.9
February 5.3 4.7 0.89 33.4 18.7 76.6 82.6 6 9.2
March 21.3 10.8 0.51 31.0 17.4 75.5 81.6 8 8.4
April 55.2 30.2 0.55 30.6 17.1 89.0 80.9 11 7.9
May 39.6 22.2 0.56 30.7 17.3 81.0 80.8 8 7.9
June 37.7 13.9 0.37 28.9 16.3 80.1 80.6 9 8.3
July 22.6 12.2 0.54 27.2 15.3 75.8 80.3 7 8.7
August 22.8 12.9 0.57 27.6 15.6 79.0 80.3 9 8.7
September 25.2 14.5 0.58 27.7 15.6 77.8 80.2 8 8.7
October 15.7 10.4 0.66 25.2 14.2 74.3 79.4 8 8.6
November 31.5 21.5 0.68 86.4 9
December 22.2 13.6 0.61 84.3 15
2007
January 26.6 16.9 0.64 83.5 6
February 17.2 10.6 0.62 77.8 6
March 9.7 4.8 0.49 72.3 7
April 6.9 3.7 0.54 72.4 9
NOTE: All smoothed values after September 2002 and monthly values after March 2003 are preliminary estimates. The lowest smoothed sunspot index number for Cycle 22, RI = 8.0, occurred in May 1996. The highest smoothed sunspot number for Cycle 23, RI= 120.8, occurred April 2000. *After June 1991, the 10.7 cm radio flux data source is Penticton, B.C. Canada. Prior to that, it was Ottawa. 8 SEC
Lowest 10.7 fig's since 2005
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