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 NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) revi

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T O P I C    R E V I E W
vk3pa Posted - 31 May 2009 : 04:41:32 AM
The latest forecast by an international panel lead by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) revises its 2007 prediction.

According to the new forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. The solar cycle is now in a deep valley -- the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.

The panel predicts that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in four years on May 2013 with a sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78.

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast. "Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel, "But use a pencil..."

In recent months the sun has begun to show timid signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/images/noaaprediction/prediction_strip2.jpg

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm?list69914

1   L A T E S T    R E P L I E S    (Newest First)
vk3pa Posted - 06 Jun 2009 : 03:08:27 AM
Right now -- June 2009 -- the solar cycle is in a valley, the deepest of
the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the Sun showed some of the lowest
sunspot counts on record, as well as weak solar winds and a low solar
irradiance, going more than two years without a significant solar flare.
"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it,"
Pesnell said. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted
in 2007."

In recent months, however, Pesnell said that the Sun has begun to show
some small signs of life: Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are
popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the
Sun's surface are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward its
equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick
in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an
awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost
unanimous forecast.

Pesnell cautioned optimism, telling the ARRL that there is an "error bar
of ± 20." This means Solar Cycle 24's sunspot number could be as high
as 110, or as low as 70. "Based upon my own personal research, I don't
think we'll see 90 [sunspots in Solar Cycle 24]," he said.


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